Sudáfrica - Tasa de Interés

The South African Reserve Bank held its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.50 percent during its November meeting, as widely expected. The decision was not unanimous. Policymakers noted that monthly inflation has been lower than the mid-point of the target range and that inflation expectations have continued to moderate gradually. Meantime, economic activity in Q3 is expected to be weak as suggested by mining and manufacturing short-term indicators. Looking ahead, the SARB disclosed that projections point to one repo cut of 25 basis points in Q3 2020, but this direction is dependent on new developments and changing data and risks.

The South African Reserve Bank decided unanimously to leave its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.50 percent on September 19th 2019, as widely expected, after trimming it by 25 bps in the prior meeting, despite concerns about economic growth. Policymakers noted that inflation expectations continued to moderate and said that they will continue to focus on anchoring inflation expectations near the mid-point of the inflation target in the interest of balanced and sustainable growth. The bank added that future policy decisions will continue to be highly data-dependent, sensitive to the assessment of the balance of risks to the outlook, and will seek to look-through temporary price shocks.

The South African Reserve Bank cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to 6.5 percent on July 18th 2019, as widely expected. It was the first rate cut since March last year, amid a persistently uncertain environment. Policymakers noted that inflation expectations continued to moderate and said that they will continue to focus on anchoring it near the mid-point of the inflation target range. The Committee added that future policy decisions are highly data dependent, sensitive to the assessment of the balance of risks to the outlook. Also, policymakers said that the GDP is expected to rebound in the second quarter of the year and lowered its outlook for 2019 to 0.6 percent (from 1 percent in a previous projection); while for 2020 and 2021 were unchanged at 1.8 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively.

The South African Reserve Bank left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.75% on May 23rd 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers said that the stance of monetary policy is broadly accommodative over the forecast period as the medium-term inflation outlook has improved. The bank added that GDP is expected to contract in Q1 2019, based on recent short term indicators and negative growth in mining and manufacturing owing to Eskom blackouts. The GDP growth projections were cut to 1.0% in 2019 from prior 1.3%; the forecast for 2020 and 2021 was unchanged at 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively.

The South African Reserve Bank decided unanimously to hold its benchmark repo rate steady at 6.75% on March 28th 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers said the current stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and monetary policy actions will continue to focus on anchoring inflation near to the mid-point of the target range in the interest of sustainable growth. The Committee also noted the moderation in inflation expectations. The GDP growth projections were cut to 1.3% in 2019 (previously 1.7 percent); to 1.8 percent in 2020 (from 2%) and to 2% in 2021 (from 2.2%).