Americans Head to the Polls Waiting for Stimulus

The US Presidential election on November 3rd 2020 will be one of the more atypical in the US history. It happens in the middle of a pandemic, with early voting surging, both by mail and in person. Anxiety and uncertainty about the results mount not only because the result may take too long to be known but because investors fear a contested result. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery.
Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com 11/3/2020 8:36:02 AM
According to the US Elections Project at the University of Florida, near 100 million Americans have already voted, and a rise in mail-in voting is raising concerns that it might take a lot of time to know the election results as officials process much more mail-in ballots than usual. President Trump recently threatened legal action to block the counting of ballots if they arrive after election day. Meanwhile, Democrat Joe Biden has been leading the polls for a long time but four years ago polls proved to be wrong and Donald Trump won. Still, regardless of the winner, markets seem to agree that a new stimulus is much needed to help the economic recovery. Yet, personal spending surged and was the main driver of a record 33.1% annualized growth in Q3, helped by checks and weekly unemployment benefits from the federal CARES Act. Indeed, many people are still unemployed as the economy only recovered nearly half of the 22 million jobs lost in March and April. Democrats have been pushing a $2.2 trillion stimulus package, and Biden's campaign includes additional checks to families; forgiving a minimum of $10,000 per person of federal student loans; and increasing monthly Social Security checks by $200/month. Republicans proposed a package worth around $1.8 trillion stimulus although President Trump said he would agree to go higher than the $1.8 trillion. Moreover, the new administration will have to deal with a pandemic far from being controlled while a vaccine for coronavirus is not ready yet. 






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03/11/2020 Real Anterior Consenso Expectativa
03:30 AM
AU
Decisión de la Tasa de Interés del RBA 0.1% 0.25% 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 AM
TR
Tasa De Inflación (Anual) OCT 11.89% 11.75% 11.9% 11.5%
10:00 AM
DE
Discurso Mauderer del Bundesbank
11:00 AM
BR
Actas de la reunión de BCB Copom
12:00 PM
MX
Confianza Empresarial OCT 41.5 40.7 ® 41
03:00 PM
US
Pedidos De Fábrica (Mensual) SEP 1.1% 0.6% ® 1% 0.6%
04:00 PM
DE
Discurso de Balz, Bundesbank
06:00 PM
BR
Balanza Comercial OCT $5.5B $6.2B $6.1B $6B
06:00 PM
DE
Discurso Mauderer del Bundesbank
09:30 PM
US
Cambio en las Existencias de Petróleo Crudo según API OCT/30 -8.01M 4.577M 1.964M
10:00 PM
AU
Servicios De Markit Pmi Final OCT 53.7 50.8 53.8
11:50 PM
JP
Boj-Monetario-Política-Reunión-Acta
US
Elección Presidencial
EA
Eurogroup Video Conference
04/11/2020 Real Anterior Consenso Expectativa
12:30 AM
AU
Venta al por menor (mensual) Final SEP -1.1% -4% -1.5% -1.5%
01:45 AM
CN
PMI Servicios Caixan OCT 56.8 54.8 54
08:00 AM
ES
Cambio En El Desempleo OCT 49.6K -26.3K 65K
08:15 AM
ES
Markit Pmi De Servicios OCT 41.4 42.4 40 40.6
08:45 AM
IT
PMI de IHS Markit Services OCT 46.7 48.8 47 46.6
08:50 AM
FR
Servicios De Markit Pmi Final OCT 46.5 47.5 46.5 46.5
08:55 AM
DE
Servicios De Markit Pmi Final OCT 49.5 50.6 48.9 48.9
09:00 AM
EA
Servicios De Markit Pmi Final OCT 46.9 48 46.2 46.2
09:30 AM
GB
Markit/CIPS RU PMI Servicios Final OCT 51.4 56.1 52.3 52.3
12:00 PM
BR
Producción Industrial (Mensual) SEP 2.6% 3.6% ® 2.2% 2.6%
01:15 PM
US
Reporte ADP De Empleo OCT 365K 753K ® 650K 590K
01:30 PM
CA
Balanza Comercial SEP C$-3.25B C$-3.21B ® C$-2.6B C$ -2.6B
01:30 PM
US
Balanza Comercial SEP $-63.9B $-67B ® $-63.8B $ -63.1B
02:45 PM
US
PMI Compuesto Markit (Final) OCT 56.3 54.3 55.5
02:45 PM
US
Servicios De Markit Pmi Final OCT 56.9 54.6 56
03:00 PM
US
Índice ISM De Actividad Empresarial No Manufacturera OCT 61.2 63 62 60
03:00 PM
US
Ism No Manufacturero De Empleo OCT 50.1 51.8 52
03:00 PM
US
Ism No Manufacturero De Pedidos OCT 58.8 61.5 61
03:00 PM
US
Ism-Non-Manufacturing-Pmi OCT 56.6 57.8 57.5 57
03:00 PM
US
Ism No Manufacturero Precios OCT 63.9 59 58
03:30 PM
US
EIA Cambio Cambio en Existencias de Petróleo Crudo OCT/30 -7.998M 4.32M 0.89M
03:30 PM
US
EIA Cushing Cambio de existencias de petróleo crudo OCT/30 0.936M -0.422M
03:30 PM
US
EIA Cambio de existencias de destilados OCT/30 -1.585M -4.491M -2.023M
03:30 PM
US
EIA Cambio en las Existencias de Gasolina OCT/30 1.541M -0.892M -0.871M
EU
EcoFin Video Conference
05/11/2020 Real Anterior Consenso Expectativa
12:00 AM
US
Total De Ventas De Vehículos OCT 16.2M 16.3M
12:30 AM
AU
Balanza Comercial SEP A$5.630B A$2.618B ® A$2.1B
12:30 AM
JP
Banco Jibun PMI Servicios Estimación Final OCT 47.7 46.9 46.6 46.6
04:00 AM
ID
Tasa de Crecimiento del PIB (Trimestral) Q3 5.05% -4.19% 5.34% 5%
04:00 AM
ID
Tasa De Crecimiento Del Pib (Anual) Q3 -3.49% -5.32% -3% -3.2%
07:00 AM
DE
Pedidos De Fábrica (Mensual) SEP 0.5% 4.9% ® 2% 1.5%
07:00 AM
GB
Banco De Inglaterra Tasa De Interés Decisión 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
07:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC Votar Corte 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
GB
Votación De Política Monetaria Del Banco De Inglaterra 0/9 0/9 0/9 0/9
07:00 AM
GB
BoE MPC Vote sin cambios 9/9 9/9 9/9 9/9
07:00 AM
GB
Boe - Cuantitativo - Aliviar £875B £745B £825B £845B
07:00 AM
GB
Informe de política monetaria
07:00 AM
GB
Mpc Acta De La Reunión
08:30 AM
DE
PMI Construcción OCT 45.2 45.5 44.4
09:30 AM
GB
PMI Construcción OCT 53.1 56.8 55 54.4
10:00 AM
EA
Venta Al Por Menor (Mensual) SEP -2% 4.2% ® -1% -1.4%
10:00 AM
EA
Venta Al Por Menor (Interanual) SEP 2.2% 4.4% ® 2.8% 2.5%
11:30 AM
ES
Confianza Del Consumidor OCT 48.5 49.5 44.9
11:40 AM
EA
Discurso de Guindos, BCE
12:00 PM
MX
Confianza Del Consumidor OCT 37.6 36.3 ® 36.1
12:00 PM
GB
Sunak Statement on COVID Support
01:00 PM
BR
Markit Pmi De Servicios OCT 52.3 50.4 51
01:30 PM
US
Peticiones por desempleo OCT/31 751K 758K ® 732K 745K
01:30 PM
US
Solicitudes de desempleo Promedio de 4 semanas OCT/31 787K 791K ® 782K
01:30 PM
US
Productividad Trimestral No Agrícola (Preliminar) Q3 4.9% 10.6% ® 5.6% 5%
01:30 PM
US
Costos Laborales Unitarios Trimestrales (Preliminar) Q3 -8.9% 8.5% ® -11.5% -10%
03:00 PM
DE
Discurso de Weidmann, Bundesbank
07:00 PM
US
Decisión De Tipos De Interés De La Fed 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
07:30 PM
US
Conferencia de prensa de la Fed
09:30 PM
AU
Ai Group Índice de Servicios OCT 51.4 36.2 37
06/11/2020 Real Anterior Consenso Expectativa
12:30 AM
AU
Declaración de la RBA sobre política monetaria
07:00 AM
DE
Producción Industrial (Mensual) SEP 1.6% 0.5% ® 2.7% 2.5%
07:45 AM
FR
Balanza Comercial SEP €-5.8B €-7.7B €-6.32B €-6.7B
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax Índice de Precios de Viviendas (Mensual) OCT 0.3% 1.5% ® 0.5% 0.8%
08:30 AM
GB
Halifax Índice de Precios de Viviendas (Interanua OCT 7.5% 7.3% 8.2% 8.3%
09:00 AM
IT
Venta Al Por Menor (Mensual) SEP -0.8% 8.2% -2.6%
12:00 PM
BR
Tasa De Inflación (Anual) OCT 3.92% 3.14% 3.9% 4%
01:30 PM
CA
Tasa De Empleo OCT 83.6K 378.2K 100K 110K
01:30 PM
CA
Cambio en el Empleo a Tiempo Completo OCT 69.1K 334K 40K
01:30 PM
CA
Cambio en el Empleo a Tiempo Parcia OCT 14.5K 44.2K ® 70K
01:30 PM
CA
Tasa De Participación OCT 65.2% 65% 65% 65.1%
01:30 PM
CA
Tasa De Desempleo OCT 8.9% 9% 8.8% 9%
01:30 PM
US
Nóminas no Agricolas OCT 638K 672K ® 600K 510K
01:30 PM
US
Tasa De Desempleo OCT 6.9% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7%
02:00 PM
CA
Discurso del gobernador de BoC Macklem
02:00 PM
CA
BoC Schembri Speech
03:00 PM
CA
Ivey Pmi Sa OCT 54.5 54.3 51.5 52
03:00 PM
US
Inventarios Mayoristas (Mensual) SEP 0.4% 0.5% ® -0.1% -0.1%
04:00 PM
RU
Tasa De Inflación (Anual) OCT 4% 3.7% 4% 3.8%
07/11/2020 Real Anterior Consenso Expectativa
03:00 AM
CN
Balanza Comercial OCT $58.44B $37B $46B $42B
03:00 AM
CN
Exportaciones (Interanual) OCT 11.4% 9.9% 9.3% 9%
03:00 AM
CN
Importaciones (Interanual) OCT 4.7% 13.2% 9.5% 10.5%
08/11/2020 Real Anterior Consenso Expectativa
11:50 PM
JP
Resumen de Opiniones del Banco de Japón





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