Americas

In the US, all eyes will be on the FOMC minutes, as markets look for clues on how Fed policymakers are assessing the impact of the Middle East conflict on growth, inflation, and interest rate expectations. The economic calendar is packed with key releases, led by the March CPI report, which is expected to show a sharp increase in inflation driven by surging energy prices linked to the Iran conflict. Consumer prices are forecast to rise 0.9% on the month, lifting the annual rate to 3.4%, the highest since April 2024, while core inflation is seen edging up to 2.7% from 2.5%. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI is likely to point to a slowdown in service sector activity, and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is expected to show a further deterioration in consumer confidence in April. The PCE report is also due, with personal spending projected to rise slightly faster, while income growth likely moderates. Additional data releases include the PCE price index, durable goods orders, factory orders, wholesale inventories for February, the final reading of Q4 GDP, and corporate profits. At the same time, the start of the earnings season will draw increasing attention, with Delta Air Lines and Constellation Brands scheduled to report. Elsewhere in America, Canada’s employment report, Ivey PMI and S&P Gloabl Services PMI will be closely watched, while Mexico’s inflation, and consumer confidence updates will provide insight into economic sentiment. In Brazil, key releases include CPI, S&P Global Services PMI, retail sales, business morale, and trade figures.

Congress, Washington DC