Americas

The outlook of the US economy will continue to depend on developments regarding the war with Iran and how it impacts global energy prices. President Trump signaled that Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program and stop targeting commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz, supporting expectations of an incoming agreement. The schedule for corporate results will also remain compact, with Tesla, Intel, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, American Express, P&G, and Lam Research reporting. On the economic data front, the US will release retail sales for March, expected to rise the most in one year at 1.3% and extend the period of consumer strength. Meanwhile, flash S&P PMIs for April are also due after having reflected contrasting impacts of the Iran war on the manufacturing and services sectors of the economy. Other releases include pending home sales, which are expected to have risen 0.5%, and business inventories for February, set to have inched higher. On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh will testify before Congress, likely elaborating on his views on the Federal Reserve's appropriate balance sheet size. Elsewhere in the Americas, a busy week of economic data releases in Canada will be headlined by March's inflation rate, due to unveil the initial impact of the war. Canada will also release new housing prices, retail sales, and budget balance. Also, Mexico will release mid-month inflation updates.

Federal Reserve Eccles Building, Washington DC

Flash PMIs for the Euro Area, Germany, France, and the UK will be the main focus in the coming week. Across the board, expectations point to softer readings, with indices likely declining to reflect slower expansion or deeper contraction in both manufacturing and services. In Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is projected to fall to a one-year low, while the Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to decline further, reaching its weakest level since February 2025. Beyond PMIs in the UK, a heavy slate of key data will be released, including inflation, labour market figures, and retail sales. Annual inflation is forecast to rise to 3.3%. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.2%, holding at its highest level since early 2021. Total average weekly earnings, including bonuses, are projected to increase by 3.6%, the slowest pace since October 2020. Meanwhile, retail sales are expected to rebound in March, marking a third increase in four months. Other notable releases include the Euro Area’s government deficit and debt, flash consumer sentiment, and new car registrations. Germany will publish its producer price index, while the UK will release CBI surveys on industrial trends orders and business optimism. Switzerland will report its trade balance, and central bank rate decisions are due from Turkey and Russia. On the corporate side, earnings highlights include L'Oréal, EssilorLuxottica, and ABB on Wednesday. Thursday brings results from SAP, Safran, and Sanofi. In the UK, Associated British Foods reports on Tuesday. Spanish banks Banco Sabadell and Bankinter are due on Thursday. From Italy, Moncler and Saipem report Tuesday, followed by Eni on Friday.

Regent Street, London, UK

In China, there are no major economic releases scheduled next week, but the People’s Bank of China is expected to keep its one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively. Stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth and an unexpected rise in producer prices gave policymakers additional room before considering further easing. In Japan, attention will turn to March trade data, with exports seen rising at a faster 11.1%, widening the trade surplus to JPY 1100 billion. Also, inflation data will likely show an acceleration in the core rate to 1.8% while flash PMI readings for April are due. The manufacturing one is expected to show a small uptick in factory growth. Flash PMI reports are also due from India and Australia. Elsewhere in the region, trade data is set for release from New Zealand, Malaysia, Thailand and Saudi Arabia while inflation figures will be reported in New Zealand, Singapore and Hong Kong. Labor market data is expected from Hong Kong and Taiwan, while South Korea will publish its latest GDP figures. On the monetary policy front, Bank Indonesia and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will decide on monetary policy.

Shanghai, China